This Negative Feedback Loop Has Led To Price Rediscovery In Favour Of A Downward Correction

A report from the South China Morning Post. “China’s residential property market has come to a standstill as sales offices are ordered to shut amid the coronavirus outbreak. Some agents are bracing for a slump in sales of as much as 80 per cent this month. ‘We sell 200 to 300 lived-in homes on the secondary market but now we basically have zero transaction,’ Wang, a Shenzhen-based agent with one of China’s largest real estate agencies, said by phone. He declined to give his full name. ‘Even if you want to view, most housing estates have barred visitors from their grounds.’”

From The Hong Kong Standard. “The escalating Wuhan coronavirus epidemic continued to weigh on the sluggish local property market, with secondary transactions for major projects remaining in single digits last weekend. In Yuen Long, In 498-sq-ft apartment at the Grand Yoho a sold for HK$7.68 million, or HK$15,422 per sq ft, compared with an initial asking price of HK$8.08 million. The seller bought the unit at HK$69.5 million in 2016.”

From Stuff New Zealand. “Auckland’s so-called ghost houses could be the answer to the city’s growing rental property shortage. Auckland Mayor Phil Goff said he had discussed plans with the Government to make renting the homes to key workers easier and more attractive to owners, saying it could be a “win-win situation” that puts money in owners’ pockets and helps the community. It was possible a new Government Agency could be formed to manage the rental of ‘tens of thousands’ of otherwise empty homes.”

“In 2016, the census recorded about 33,000 homes sitting empty in the Greater Auckland area. By the 2018 census, there were more than 39,000.”

From Domain News in Australia. “There are a handful of properties on the market across different parts of Sydney with motivated sellers who are willing to negotiate on price or have already discounted. In Sydney’s west, a brand-new two-bedroom apartment in Guildford is on offer with a price guide of $550,000 to $575,000. Guardian Property Specialists Roy Halabi said the vendors, who are the developers of the block of units, are willing to negotiate on price.”

“‘It’s very attractive to first-home buyers … they can get all the stamp duty exemptions, and it falls under [FHB concessions] thresholds,’ he said. ‘Price reduction,’ reads the listing. ‘Motivated vendor says sell!’”

From The Star on Kenya. “An increase in the number of mortgage defaults has forced property developers back to the growing board. A survey by the Kenya Bankers Association shows a pile-up of distressed properties continues to have an impact on the real estate market, with dealers having to reduce their asking prices. The distressed properties although certified for occupation, have remained unsold for more than nine months.”

“Owing to the subdued economic environment in 2019, a number of homeowners have been forced to auction off their properties. Those who sell distressed homes do so, not because they have a choice, but to offset what they owe a mortgagee or a lender. It is common for a distressed property to be sold below market value. ‘This negative feedback loop has clouded the house market outlook and led to price rediscovery in favour of a downward correction,’ KBA director of research and policy Jared Osoro said.”

From Zawya on Dubia. “Tens of thousands of apartments and villas were originally scheduled for completion in Dubai this year, but the promised number of residential units may not hit the market this year because of financing issues, construction delays, according to an analysis by experts. When asked why the delivery of property projects tend to get stalled, Lynnette Abad, director for research and data at PropertyFinder said some companies normally face ‘financing issues, contractual disputes, construction delays and licensing/ approval delays.’ ‘Some developers also tend to hold back completions to avoid flooding the market,’ Abad told Zawya.”

The Globe and Mail on Canada. “The last thing Calgary’s battered commercial real estate market needed was a breakdown at a major landlord. Thanks to the oil crash, and the exodus of numerous energy companies, the skyline already had lots of empty space. The downtown office-vacancy rate has been close to 30 per cent for the past three years, or roughly 15 times higher than Toronto and Vancouver. Now, dozens of office buildings owned by Strategic Group Inc. are in limbo, and may go up for sale, after a judge placed them into receivership in December.”

“Led by developer Riaz Mamdani, Strategic had sought court protection so it could restructure 56 of its Alberta properties, 46 of them in Calgary. It planned to sell some of the real estate, and turn some office buildings into other uses such as residences, retail and storage. ‘A lot of people think the high vacancy rate is because a lot of people got laid off. No. It is a combination of that and all that new supply coming to the market,’ said Greg Kwong, Alberta regional managing director for commercial realtor CBRE.”

The San Diego Reader on Mexico. “Skyline resident C. Valdez saw the news of the reported 16,000 abandoned homes in Baja California — with 4,000 in Tijuana — that are ‘invaded’ and inhabited by squatters. Valdez is an auto mechanic by trade; on his time off, he visits his elderly mother’s properties in Tijuana and Rosarito. ‘She owns a couple two-story houses down there and an apartment complex,’ he said, ‘she usually has people living in the one house for free, to keep an eye on the properties — I go there to talk to the caretakers; they catch squatters in our other house all of the time.’”

“‘Everything is invaded, all homes that are foreclosed are invaded,’ José Luis Padilla Gutiérrez reportedly said, ‘there must be about 4,000 in Tijuana, and 16,000 in the state of Baja California.’ ‘There’s like subdivisions down there,’ Valdez added, ‘you know the nice tract housing? Those are squatted in too.’”