As the Department of Defense prepares to submit its fiscal year 2024 budget request to Congress in mid-March, there are twelve key topics to watch for during the initial roll-out and briefings.

1. What is the defense budget top line and how is it characterized by the administration? Does it align with the stated strategy and build on the strong bi-partisan support demonstrated with enactment of the defense policy and appropriations bills at the end of 2022 which provided $816 billion for Defense within the $858 billion for National Security? How does it treat inflation and does it provide sufficient pay raises for the uniform and civilian force?
2. What are the trends for the key appropriations titles of procurement; research, development, test, and evaluation (RDTE) and operations and maintenance (O&M)? Is procurement, again, shortchanged for perpetual increases in RDTE that have a questionable path to deployment of capability only to be followed by long unfunded priority lists for actually buying stuff? Is O&M sufficient to maintain readiness? Are there new readiness initiatives to address perpetual challenges in weapons systems sustainment, base operations support and ship availabilities?
3. And, speaking of ships, what does the Navy budget tell us about plans to address increasingly well documented shortfalls in meeting requirements for a fleet of the size and structure needed to deter and prepare for conflict in the Pacific?
4. Does the budget support key industrial base and supply chain initiatives necessary to keep critical procurement lines open, supply chains flowing and new, innovative firms joining the mix?
5. Is the Department going to get serious about munitions and missile production and stockpiles—capacity, throughput, priorities and production timelines? Will the budget send a strong demand signal on its requirements and indicate plans to make use of new multi-year procurement authority to avoid just in time deliveries and perpetual shortfalls?
6. How much definition does the budget provide for key efforts needed for all domain warfare in space and cyber, joint command and control, and advances in disruptive technologies such as hypersonics and microelectronics? Does it just throw more money at budget buzz words or does it communicate solid plans with testing, scaling and procurement ramps?
7. How does the budget treat the Defense Innovation Unit, the Rapid Defense Experimental Reservice and the new Office of Strategic Capital?
8. How many programs and activities—new and continuing—and at what cost, are loaded into the defense budget that do not produce military capability? A look at detailed budget justification documents will probably be necessary to illuminate this part of the request.
9. Are there real choices evident that show a shift of priorities between the Military Departments? Or do the historical “shares” of the budget continue?
10. Is the Department proposing more of the perpetually rejected “divest to invest” ideas or options to reduce expensive excess physical capacity in facilities and infrastructure, while avoiding the “B” word—BRAC? Are there other cost-saving initiatives proposed?
11. Does the budget continue and/or improve binning the budget under the Pacific Deterrence Initiative? How is the partnership with Taiwan prioritized?
12. What, support does the budget contain for Ukraine? Is there a signal of additional supplemental funding needed this fiscal year?

Finally, it will be important to listen for comments from the Department—and White House—on the urgency of a budget agreement that will allow for on-time enactment of appropriations. As the current Congress appears even less likely to find common ground on issues than those of the last several years, will defense—and the nation’s security—be used as leverage and eventually held hostage to other priorities, resulting in lost time and money . . . again?

It will take a strong, consistent message and concentrated, persistent negotiations between the White House, the Senate, and the House to see that the fundamental job of the government—supporting the nation’s security and those who provide it—is done before October 1.

The post What to Watch for in the Defense 2024 Budget Release appeared first on American Enterprise Institute – AEI.