Though there are more than 600 days to the general election, the shadow primary for the 2024 Republican nomination is in full swing. After a quiet few months following his November campaign announcement, Donald Trump has started to ramp up staffing and fundraising operations in recent weeks. On February 15th, Nikki Haley jumped into the race, while fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott continues to visit and run ads in Iowa. Other Republicans – including Larry Hogan, Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence, Chris Sununu, and Kristi Noem – are all considering winter or early spring campaign launches.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, billed as the biggest threat to Trump’s re-nomination, is not expected to officially join the field until late May or early June. His coyness has not prevented pollsters from surveying the expected primary battle. Recent high-quality polling firmly cements Trump and DeSantis as the two frontrunners – but each has a wildly different coalition of Republican voters. While Trump has retained strong support from poorer, older, and non-college voters, DeSantis has made clear inroads with wealthier, younger, and college-educated Republicans. Called the “beer track” and “wine track” by pundits, these dueling demographic coalitions are an essential subcurrent of the 2024 primary.
Republicans with an annual income greater than $100k are some of the strongest DeSantis supporters. An early February Monmouth poll found DeSantis leading Trump by a shocking 40 points with high-income voters. Meanwhile, Republicans making less than $50k per year preferred Trump by 15 points. This 55-point income gap is a stunning class divide. Such levels of income sorting are rare – especially for a primary contest that remains a year away.
The education divide is nearly as stark as the income gap: most college-educated Republicans clearly have serious reservations about Trump 2024. Last week’s Quinnipiac poll found DeSantis up 30 points over Trump among whites with a college degree. Among non-college whites, Trump retained a10-point lead. The recent Monmouth poll – perhaps DeSantis’s best poll so far – had Trump down 34 with college-educated Republicans, but down just five with non-degree holders. Again and again this pattern repeats itself: DeSantis always performs significantly better with Republicans with more formal education.
Degree holders are also skeptical Trump is the GOP’s strongest general election candidate. A recent NPR/PBS/Marist survey found 68 percent of college-graduate Republicans think a Trump alternative has a better chance to win the presidency. Meanwhile, only 47 percent of non-college Republicans share the same sentiment.
The Trump-DeSantis education gap raises fascinating questions as the primary heats up. Non-college whites remain the core of the MAGA movement and continue to play an important role in Republican primary elections. Should Trump retain his strong support among this group, he will enter Iowa and New Hampshire with an important electoral advantage. On the other hand, lower income non-degree holders are often less politically engaged. Trump’s comparably high favorables with this group could be chalked up to his status as a universally known quantity. As primary day draws closer, however, these low-engagement voters – a big chunk of Trump’s base – will start paying attention and may quickly warm to DeSantis or another Trump alternative.
Wednesday’s Marist poll confirms that DeSantis has yet to reach chunks of the Republican electorate. Twenty-seven percent of non-college Republicans and 35 percent of those making less than $50k were unsure or had no opinion on DeSantis. The corresponding findings for Trump were each 8%. A favorable introduction to these portions of the primary electorate will prove essential to a successful DeSantis candidacy.
Though horse-race polling often compares Trump and DeSantis in a two-way race, the pair, of course, will not be the only candidates. The emergence of a large primary field could present difficulties for DeSantis if he runs. Potential candidates like Pence and Haley have similarly high favorables among college-educated, wealthy Republicans – the core of DeSantis’s support at the moment. In a crowded field, Trump has a strong shot at the nomination, but his grip on the Republican primary electorate is undoubtedly loosening. If DeSantis hopes to win, he will need to improve his standing with older, poorer and non-college voters – and quickly dispatch the other Republicans who will announce in the coming weeks.
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