The new Congress has many opportunities ahead. Early indications, at least from the House, are that robust debate will be the order of the day.

Using the Senate 2023 legislative calendar and optimistically assuming work Monday through Friday during session weeks, starting February 1, there are 111 days to do the nation’s business before the start of the new fiscal year on October 1, 2023.

Given the limited time, Congress must immediately begin work to perform its most critical duty—developing and debating defense policy and funding initiatives. A quick look back may be useful.

Congress authorized and appropriated a much-needed increase in defense spending at the end of 2022. Despite an understandable last-minute dustup in the House over lack of transparency in the process, which is definitely not the way regular order should work, the votes supporting increased funding for the Department of Defense (DOD) were bipartisan with 350 members of the House and 83 senators voting in favor of the authorized levels, which closely matched the final appropriation.

Within the broader national security budget, which includes DOD and some Department of Energy and other programs, the table above shows that the omnibus appropriations bill added nearly $74 billion ($22 billion adjusted for 7 percent simple inflation) to the FY 2022 enacted DOD budget. This is an important increase that is now being spent to mitigate inflationary impacts on defense operations, programs, and the force. It is buying more military capability (+$8 billion in real buying power in the procurement accounts) and directly supporting industrial base preparedness. It provides a critically needed real increase of close to $5 billion for operations and maintenance accounts that go toward flying hours, weapons systems sustainment, ship maintenance, and base operations among other things.

The research and development accounts received the largest dollar increase which is spread across hundreds of budget lines ranging in size from $500,000 for research and training on artificial intelligence and machine learning for the ROTC to $300 million for the biotechnology manufacturing institute.

Some of the defense increase is also allocated to programs and activities that do not produce military capability. For example, Congress included the annual $2 billion increase for medical research, much of which duplicates ongoing work at the National Institutes of Health. It also added over $500 million to environmental restoration, $261 million to national guard youth challenge and star base programs, and $210 million for commissaries. It is necessary to understand this aspect of the defense budget which does not produce military capability, particularly looking ahead to any budget agreement this year that continues to mandate a level of parity between defense and non-defense spending.

We should keep the above observations in mind as we look ahead to the FY 2024 budget, particularly amidst confusing and concerning reports about potential attempts cut defense spending to FY 2022 levels as part of a budget deal this year.

Here are three specific considerations for FY 2024.

First, cuts to the defense top line, particularly those that would revert to 2022 levels, would be irresponsible, destructive, wasteful, and dangerous. The FY 2024 budget for DOD should be set no lower than $882 billion to maintain the force we have during a continued time of high inflation and to also make the most of that force by fixing aircraft readiness, ship maintenance, shipbuilding, and providing necessary pay and compensation.

Second, as capacity is a capability of its own and the current and planned inventory of ships, planes, munitions, and ground assets is low and shrinking, there should be a priority on the procurement accounts, even at the expense of the research accounts if necessary. Though a healthy research and prototyping effort is important to future modernization, the department and Congress should shift focus to buying capability coming out of these efforts. Perpetual focus on research won’t provide the capacity that is needed now, nor will it maintain a healthy industrial base and supply chain. 

Third, Congress should gather real data on the impacts of three critical disruptors to the industrial base—inflation, workforce, and supply chain. This information should be used to target any special interest adds to areas that would have the most positive impact on national security and deliver the best bang for the buck to the US taxpayer. The US defense industry is experiencing the impacts of broad and unforeseen economic disruptions, in some cases more acutely than other markets since it is built on a trusted workforce with unique qualifications and a specialized supply chain ecosystem.

Given the limited time available and the stakes involved, now is the time to begin the critical work to establish a budget framework that will allow for on-time enactment of defense funding needed by the nation and those who protect it. 

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