In March of 2022, foreign ministers from Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States met in Israel for the inaugural Negev Summit meeting. The group was a de facto reunion of the Abraham Accords signatories—with a notable exception. During the summit, Jordan’s King Abdullah II was in the West Bank, decrying agreements that “hinder a regional settlement and the establishment of a Palestinian state.” Jordan hopes its decision to sit out Negev will resonate as a strategic choice, but Negev participants should call it out for what it is: unproductive, damaging, and yes, childish.

Jordan, not unnaturally, remains a stalwart rhetorical proponent of a solution to the question of Palestine. But the Abraham Accords put paid to the notion that all agreements with Israel must take a back seat to peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Indeed, the only serious proponents of this “Palestine first” view are Iran and its proxies. Still, Jordan wants to have it both ways: The Kingdom accepts the Accords despite Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas accusing signatories of having “turned their backs on everything.” Per Jordan’s deputy Prime Minister Ayman Safadi, the Accords are “not an alternative to a political solution [to the Palestinian issue] but an enabler of that political solution.” 

Jordan’s efforts to butter its bread on both sides carries serious risks . . . for Jordan. Just this fall, the Amman government and the US signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) allotting the Kingdom $1.45 billion per year in assistance through 2029. Last fall also saw new forward motion in Israel-Jordan relations, with an MOU trading Jordanian solar power capacity in return for desalinated water from Israel. Plus, earlier this year saw a fourth installment of aid rollout from Saudi Arabia. While Saudi Arabia is not in the Negev group, its proxy Bahrain is—the reason why, when coupled with Jordan’s fraternity with the UAE, Jordan was originally reticent to vocally criticize the Abraham Accords. 

But Jordan evidently believes it is a power player in the Middle East peace framework. While sneering at the Abraham Accords and its progeny, the Negev group, Jordan reaps the benefits. Its refusal to fully normalize relations with Israel without Palestine returning to 1967 borderlines has not stalled progress on the Accords, and the story will be the same with the Negev forum. Should the Kingdom decide to let Iran’s rhetoric on Palestine win out, it will forfeit credibility in its bilateral relationships in the region—doing neither itself nor Palestine a favor.

All of these developments come in the context of growing Jordanian antagonism towards Israel. Once called upon to mediate between Jerusalem and Ramallah, Jordan is drawing lines in the sand that do not need to be drawn. Instead of using the forum to integrate constructive Israeli-Palestinian policy into regional discussions, Jordan is building a strawman to oppose. The upcoming second iteration of the forum is a chance to fix the backslide, and remind King Abdullah II that once, he too was supportive of a “Middle East NATO.”

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