The Democratic Party appears on the verge of a massive shake-up of its primary schedule. Much to the chagrin of Iowans and New Hampshirites, party insiders voted this week to endorse President Joe Biden’s preferred order, beginning with South Carolina. New Hampshire and Nevada would follow a few days later, while Georgia and Michigan would close out February in the fourth and fifth spots. The Democrats’ abandonment of Iowa makes practical and political sense: Not only did the state party botch the hotly contested 2020 caucus, but the demographics of the Hawkeye State are increasingly disassociated from today’s iteration of the Democratic Party.

According to 2020 exit polls, 91 percent of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers were white. In the national general election, only 54 percent of Biden voters were white. Black and Hispanic voters were just 7 percent of Iowa caucus-goers, but combined for 33 percent of Biden’s national support. Similar demographic disparities are obvious in New Hampshire as well. Nearly 90 percent of primary voters were white, while only 3 percent were black.

Nor do Iowa and New Hampshire have particularly strong track records in actually picking nominees. The early states are meant to produce a primary frontrunner and select a strong general election candidate. That has not always worked out so well—just ask Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg. In the five contested New Hampshire Democratic primaries since 1992, Granite Staters have voted for the eventual nominee just once (John Kerry in 2004). With neither demographic diversity nor kingmaker prowess, there is a strong case to replace the “first in the nation” pair.

But South Carolina, the Biden administration’s handpicked replacement, presents different challenges. The president’s motivations are obvious: After lackluster finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, a convincing win in South Carolina revived his candidacy. Though House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn played an important role in Biden’s primary win, he appeared surprised at the selection. “I don’t think South Carolina has to go first . . . I never asked for it to be first,” the congressman told NPR. Its politics and demographics do make for a strange first primary.

The recent Census highlighted South Carolina’s disparate demographic trends. The central “black belt”—a swath of majority-black counties—has hemorrhaged population in the past decade. Though South Carolina as a whole was the 10th fastest-growing state between 2010 and 2020, the eight majority-black counties shrunk by 13.1 percent. Jim Clyburn’s VRA district lost 2.2 percent of its population, while the neighboring majority-white 1st District grew an astounding 23.9 percent.

As the black belt has suffered, coastal South Carolina has boomed. Horry County (Myrtle Beach) and Berkeley County (Charleston suburbs) both approached 30 percent growth over the past decade. Each is solidly Republican, which, when combined with a stagnant black population, offers little hope for South Carolina Democrats. Even white college graduates—a group that has zoomed leftwards nationally—remain stubbornly Republican in South Carolina. Obama won 32 percent in 2008, and Biden 36 percent 12 years later.

Culturally moderate black voters are a crucial constituency for Democrats. But South Carolina’s racial polarization, uneven population growth, and ruby red hue limits its appeal as a “first in the nation” candidate. President Biden’s advocacy is a nod to the debt he owes South Carolina, but the party has little to gain from his preferred plan.

So who should go first? Georgia and Michigan are two intriguing options. In Georgia, which rejected Trump but remains largely Republican down ballot, an early Democratic primary would help build local party infrastructure and motivate the growing Democratic base. Georgia has both urban and rural black populations, as well as left-trending suburbs. But fresh off a humiliating Senate loss, Georgia Republicans appear unlikely to cooperate with a Democratic plan to shift the primary date. 

Michigan Democrats, however, recently captured a state government trifecta. Demographically, too, Michigan checks the right boxes. A significant black population in and around Detroit. A rapidly growing Hispanic population. White working-class voters they hope to win back and white college graduates they hope to win over. Farmers and a strong union tradition. Michigan also offers a more moderate primary constituency than Iowa. And unlike in Georgia, Governor Gretchen Whitmer would leap at the chance to set Michigan as the first Democratic primary. At just 51, she may have presidential ambitions of her own which a high-profile primary in her home state could boost.

The Democratic plan to reduce the influence of Iowa and, to a lesser extent, New Hampshire is a smart one. Party coalitions and presidential battlegrounds have changed. The primary schedule should change with them. South Carolina, however, offers little to Democrats. Places like Michigan or Georgia appeal to more factions of the party—and, most importantly, would help produce strong general election nominees.

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