I’d like to spend 2023 criticizing President Joe Biden’s China performance, while hoping for Republican challengers to emerge with better ideas. Since former President Donald Trump announced he will run again, though, his record while in office matters again. Trump’s China trade and economic policies started off promising, deteriorated pretty quickly, and ended up as completely terrible. This is a quick run-through—much more to come.
When thinking Trump and China, tariffs may come to mind first. His China tariffs are still in place, because President Biden likes them or hasn’t had the nerve to make a change. A benefit from that: The lack of impact is clear. In 2017, the last year without the tariffs, US goods imports from China stood at $505 billion and the goods trade deficit at $375 billion. In 2022 through September, with the tariffs, goods imports from China are on pace for $557 billion and the deficit for $412 billion.
What about exports to the PRC? They were supposed to soar under the “phase 1” trade deal signed by Trump in January 2020. Over two years, American exports were promised to rise $200 billion over the 2017 level. 2017 US goods and services exports to the PRC were worth $188 billion and phase 1 was supposed to deliver something like $268 billion in exports in 2020 and $308 billion in 2021. Actual 2020 exports: $166 billion. Actual 2021: $192 billion.
Instead of rising $200 billion, American exports to the PRC fell compared to 2017. Due to COVID, the miserable failure of phase 1 was obvious two months in, but former President Trump could never let go of it. He could never let go because the rest of his China policies were very weak. In what might be the biggest example, during the “trade war” American money was pouring into the PRC and aiding the Communist Party.
At the end of 2016, the total amount of US investment in Chinese stocks and bonds was $368 billion. At the end of 2020, it was $1.15 trillion. Trump didn’t order this, but the surge started when he took office and the phase 1 agreement has a chapter encouraging it. Tariffs leaving a huge trade deficit, the Chinese totally ignoring the centerpiece deal, and close to $800 billion leaving the US. Using Trump’s own logic, how many jobs lost is that?
In 2015–6, candidate Trump talked a big game of confronting China; in 2017–2020, President Trump wasn’t at all up to the challenge. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Party, is a brutal and dangerous dictator, one of the last people an American president should praise. Near the start of his presidency, Trump was praising Xi. He was still doing it near the end. He was still at it in late 2021. Trump may not even want to be tough.
How to deal with the PRC is obviously not the only election issue. But it’s one of the most important for many Republicans. Staring at a 2023 full of more outrageous opinions both from and about Donald Trump, at least one part can be boiled down to facts. The Trump Presidency failed badly on China.
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