This is the sixth issue of an AEIdeas series that focuses on elections and demographic voting patterns. During the 2022 campaign, we look weekly at demographic subgroup averages from a month of polls.

The tight generic ballot race we warned of two weeks ago has arrived. After a consistent two-point lead throughout the summer and early fall, Democrats are now just barely ahead of Republicans. Polls continue to find that economic concerns—a winning issue for Republicans—are more important to voters than abortion—the preferred Democratic talking point. The switch to likely voter screens, too, has hurt Democrats. Siena, Susquehanna, and Harris all find Republicans leading with likely voters, but much closer races once all registered voters are included. This disparity highlights a primary predicament for Democrats: many Democratic leaners don’t appear likely to vote. If these voters show up to the polls, Democratic losses could be limited. But if likely voter screens prove correct, Republicans should easily capture the House.

Key Findings

• This week’s New York Times/Siena College poll painted a bleak picture for Democrats. Though the generic ballot is tied among registered voters, Republicans lead by four points with likely voters. After holding a 13-point lead among women in September, Democrats edge out Republicans by just three points in the latest NYT/Siena poll. Our month-to-month comparison confirms that Democrats are slipping with women voters; their advantage has dropped almost three points since last month’s snapshot.
• Among registered voters, Democrats lead by four with independents. Once the likely voter screen is applied, however, this lead collapses into a 10-point deficit. Sweeping conclusions are best avoided with small crosstab samples, but the Times poll certainly portends trouble for Democrats—particularly with women and independents.
• If we filter our averages to include just likely voters, Republicans take a one-point lead on the generic ballot. Though no voter screen is perfect, Democrats would need and hope to close this gap as more and more voters begin to cast their midterm ballots. For the first time, the overall number of undecided voters has dropped below 10 percent, though minority voters remain undecided at higher rates.
• The gap between non-college and college whites continues to grow. For the first time this cycle, the difference in margin between the two has surpassed an astounding 40 points, well above the 33-point gap in 2020’s presidential contest. Republicans trail with white college voters by 13.6 points, but lead with non-college whites by more than 27 points. Democrats appear stuck in the low 30s with non-college whites—no poll this month has them above 34 percent—so a repeat of Biden’s 37 percent mark appears unlikely.
• Our average Democratic margin among Hispanics has dropped to 15.5 points. By way of comparison, Democrats’ margin in 2020 was 25 points and in 2018, 35 points.

Previous election data is drawn from Catalist crosstab estimates. Catalist is a Democratic data analytics organization.

*How we did this: This month-long average is a compilation of online and live caller polls that release crosstabs. Internal and explicitly partisan polls are excluded. This edition averages polls from Monmouth University, Grinnell College/Selzer & Company, Washington Post/ABC News, Economist/YouGov, Morning Consult/Politico, Harvard/Harris, CBS News, Emerson, Yahoo News, Rasmussen, Echelon Insights, Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour, New York Times/Siena College, and Fox News.

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