This is the third issue of an AEIdeas series that focuses on elections and demographic voting patterns. During the 2022 campaign, we look weekly at demographic subgroup averages from a month of polls. As we get closer to Election Day, several major pollsters are using a tighter screen to give us information on who will actually turn out to vote. These tighter screens can make a difference. Take the ABC News/Washington Post poll out this week. On the generic ballot question in the poll, Republicans led by a single percentage point among registered voters. But among likely voters, Republicans led by five. Emerson had the race tied among likely voters. While enthusiasm is high in both parties, the real question is who will actually decide to vote.
Generic Ballot Averages*
Aug. 27–Sep. 27
| Dem. | Rep. | Dem-Rep Margin | Number of Polls | ||
| Overall | 45.6% | 43.0% | 2.7 | 21 | |
| Ethnicity | White | 40.0 | 50.0 | -10.0 | 21 |
| Hispanic | 53.4 | 32.1 | 21.3 | 15 | |
| Black | 70.8 | 14.9 | 55.9 | 19 | |
| Education | White College | 53.2 | 40.8 | 12.3 | 6 |
| White No College | 31.5 | 58.5 | -27.0 | 6 | |
| College | 54.6 | 38.8 | 15.8 | 9 | |
| No College | 42.0 | 48.0 | -6.0 | 8 | |
| Gender | Male | 42.2 | 47.4 | -5.2 | 18 |
| Female | 49.4 | 38.6 | 10.8 | 18 | |
| Income | <$50k | 45.9 | 38.9 | 7.0 | 9 |
| $50-100k | 44.1 | 46.0 | -1.9 | 7 | |
| $100k+ | 47.3 | 44.1 | 3.1 | 7 |
Key Findings
- College-educated voters continue their march into the Democratic column. Over the last six weeks, the Democratic margin among these voters has climbed an impressive 8.2 points, though their lead still lags a couple points behind Biden’s 2020 performance with highly educated voters. Democrats remain at a six-point disadvantage among non-college voters, a gap that has grown since the implementation of likely voter screens.
- With white college-educated voters in particular, Democrats appear to be actually improving their margins over 2020, with a 12-point advantage on the generic congressional measure compared to an eight-point lead for Biden last election.
- Democrats, however, are not the only party confronting education polarization. This week’s Washington Post/ABC News Poll showed a startling divergence in Republican views towards a Donald Trump campaign in 2024. Those without a college degree support the former president by 17 points, but voters with a degree prefer someone else by 37 points—a 54-point education gap.
- A new Grinnell College/Selzer & Company poll shows similar movement away from Trump’s brand of politics. In their survey, less than half of Republicans identified themselves as MAGA Republicans. Nevertheless, a recent Monmouth poll finds that 61 percent of Republicans believe that Biden’s victory was fraudulent—a figure that has remained remarkably consistent since November of 2020.
- Democrats continue to lag behind their 2020 performance among Hispanic and white non-college voters. Emerson, Morning Consult, and YouGov all place the Democratic lead among Hispanics at less than 18 points, well below Biden’s 25-point margin in 2020.
Demographic Margin Trends
| Dem. | Rep. | Margin change from last edition |
Margin change from 8/12 |
|
| Overall | 45.7% | 42.9% | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| White | 40.0 | 50.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| Hispanic | 53.4 | 32.1 | -0.4 | 0.5 |
| Black | 70.8 | 14.9 | -0.4 | -3.1 |
| White College | 53.2 | 40.8 | 2.0 | 5.7 |
| White No College | 31.5 | 58.5 | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| College | 54.6 | 38.8 | 2.8 | 8.2 |
| No College | 42.0 | 48.0 | -3.1 | -5.6 |
| Male | 42.2 | 47.4 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Female | 49.4 | 38.6 | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| <$50k | 45.9 | 38.9 | -0.3 | -1.4 |
| $50-100k | 44.1 | 46.0 | -1.7 | 0.7 |
| $100k+ | 47.3 | 44.1 | -2.4 | -2.1 |
Previous election data is drawn from Catalist crosstab estimates. Catalist is a Democratic data analytics organization.
*How we did this: This month-long average is a compilation of online and live caller polls that release crosstabs. Internal and explicitly partisan polls are excluded. This edition averages polls from the Grinnell College/Selzer & Company, Washington Post/ABC News, Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac University, Morning Consult/Politico, Harvard/Harris, CBS News, Emerson, The Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen, Echelon Insights, Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour, New York Times/Siena College, and Fox News.
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