This is the second issue of an AEIdeas series that focuses on elections and demographic voting patterns. During the 2022 campaign, we look weekly at demographic subgroup averages from a month of polls. While Democrats have pulled ahead on the generic ballot, Republicans are seeking to capitalize on areas of demographic weakness for Democrats come Election Day. This unique snapshot provides a far better sense than any individual poll of key groups’ current preferences and how they are moving as we approach November 8.
Generic Ballot Averages*
Aug. 20 – Sep. 20
| Dem. | Rep. | Dem-Rep Margin | Number of Polls | ||
| Overall | 45.6% | 43.0 | 2.6 | 19 | |
| Ethnicity | White | 40.1 | 50.4 | -10.3 | 19 |
| Hispanic | 53.6 | 31.9 | 21.7 | 15 | |
| Black | 71.0 | 14.8 | 56.3 | 18 | |
| Education | White College | 52.3 | 42.0 | 10.3 | 7 |
| White No College | 31.6 | 58.6 | -27.0 | 7 | |
| College | 53.0 | 40.0 | 13.0 | 8 | |
| No College | 43.8 | 46.7 | -2.9 | 8 | |
| Gender | Male | 42.7 | 46.9 | -4.1 | 16 |
| Female | 49.1 | 38.9 | 10.2 | 16 | |
| Income | <$50k | 46.0 | 38.7 | 7.3 | 6 |
| $50-100k | 44.3 | 44.5 | -0.2 | 4 | |
| $100k+ | 48.8 | 43.3 | 5.5 | 4 |
Key Findings
- Since early August, Democrats have gained 1.6 points on the overall generic ballot, growing their overall lead to 2.6 points. After several weeks of consistent improvement, however, Democratic gains have slowed: since last week’s snapshot the Democratic lead nudged upwards by just 0.1 points.
- Joe Biden received 47 percent of non-college voters in the 2020 presidential election, but Democratic support among this group remains stuck around 43 percent. This divergence indicates non-white non-college voters may be shifting to the right along with their non-college white counterparts.
- The Democratic advantage among the lowest-income voters is just 7.6 points. In 2020, Biden’s margin among the same group was 11 points. No poll we reviewed in the last month shows Democrats breaking 50 percent among voters making less than $50,000. A live-phone Marist/NPR/PBS poll even showed Republicans with a narrow lead among this group.
- Conversely, Democrats have improved dramatically among those who make more than $100,000. While Joe Biden lost this group by double digits, polls have consistently shown Democrats now with a narrow lead.
- In the last midterm election, the gender gap was 21 points, but current averages point to just a 14-point gap this cycle. The smaller margin largely results from a 10-point Democratic lead among women, down from 17 in 2018.
Demographic Margin Trends
| Dem. | Rep. | Margin change | Margin change | |
| from last edition | from 8/12 | |||
| Overall | 45.6% | 43.0% | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| White | 40.1 | 50.4 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Hispanic | 53.6 | 31.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Black | 71.0 | 14.8 | -1.1 | -2.7 |
| White College | 52.3 | 42.0 | -2.5 | 3.7 |
| White No College | 31.6 | 58.6 | 1.8 | -3.6 |
| College | 53.0 | 40.0 | 0.2 | 5.4 |
| No College | 43.8 | 46.7 | 1.1 | -2.4 |
| Male | 42.7 | 46.9 | -0.6 | 0.0 |
| Female | 49.1 | 38.9 | -0.3 | 1.4 |
| <$50k | 46.0 | 38.7 | 1.3 | -1.0 |
| $50-100k | 44.3 | 44.5 | -2.4 | 2.4 |
| $100k+ | 48.8 | 43.3 | -0.7 | 0.3 |
Previous election data is drawn from Catalist crosstab estimates. Catalist is a Democratic data analytics organization.
*How we did this: This month-long average is a compilation of online and live caller polls that release crosstabs. Internal and explicitly partisan polls are excluded. This edition averages polls from the Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac University, Morning Consult/Politico, Harvard/Harris, CBS News, Emerson, The Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen, Echelon Insights, Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour, New York Times/Siena College, and Fox News.
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