At the 50-day mark, there are conflicting signals about the direction of the 2022 midterm election. On the one hand, Republicans can point to signs typical of a midterm election with an opposing party incumbent. President Biden’s job approval rating, while improved from earlier this summer, still sits in the low range. On the other hand, Democrats have been cheered by their performance in a number of special elections, by improved congressional generic ballot numbers driven in part by the reaction to the Dobbs decision, and by lower gas prices.

How to explain these two sets of indicators pointing in different directions? Nate Cohn of the New York Times recently suggested one possible explanation–that we may be seeing a return of polling error from 2020 that more frequently and in key states favored Democrats. In this view, President Biden’s low ratings and his incumbent status are the fundamentals of the election, and Senate and gubernatorial polls are overstating Democratic performance. A contrary view holds that President Biden’s unpopularity includes a slice of Democrats who are unhappy with his performance but will still turn out strongly to vote for Democratic candidates in November.

Our view is that it is unlikely this disjuncture between leading indicators will last. Put simply, we have never seen the party in the White House, with an unpopular incumbent, do well in midterm elections. If there is a lasting move toward Democrats, it will likely be accompanied by further improvement in Biden’s ratings. Or we will see, as we get closer to Election Day, the polls in individual races start to move toward Republicans to reflect the underlying situation of a party with an unpopular incumbent in the White House.

With that said, all of the major forecasters are now giving more favorable assessments of Democrats’ chances than those earlier in the summer. Senate forecasts have a slight lean to Democrats keeping control of the Senate. And projections for the House still show a likely Republican gain in control, but with smaller margins than earlier anticipated.

In the Senate, there are still four races to watch: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Republican wins in two of those states would gain them a seat and the majority in the Senate. Recent Senate polls, however, show improved prospects for Democratic candidates in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and even possibly Florida and Ohio.

The governors’ races start with the fact that Democrats will almost certainly take back Maryland and Massachusetts. The best prospect for a Republican pickup is in Kansas, with Wisconsin seemingly the second-best chance for a pickup. But recent polls in Wisconsin are looking better for Democratic incumbent Gov. Tony Evers. Other states to watch are again the big four states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

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