President Joe Biden’s legally dubious scheme to “forgive” half a trillion dollars in student loans may be horrific public policy, but it’s simple politics. The White House figures that it’s a classic case of concentrated benefits and dispersed costs, like sugar subsidies.

The game here was to give taxpayer money away, make recipients happy, hope that no one else pays a lot of attention, and trust the news cycle to spin on. The administration’s confidence was boosted when mainstream media did more cheerleading than coverage and by an early Quinnipiac poll which showed the public supported the move, 53 to 43.

But polls can shift, especially when the policy is as awful as this one. As I wrote last week at the Dispatch:

It’s regressive, steering vast sums to college-goers who, on the whole, are disproportionately well-off. It’s inflationary, pumping hundreds of billions of unearned dollars into the economy without even a pretense that it’s paid for. It’s unnecessary, given that income-driven repayment and loan forgiveness options already exist to accommodate borrowers in need. It creates an immense moral hazard, encouraging colleges to be ever more cavalier about raising tuition and future borrowers about taking on student debt. And it’s ludicrously designed, with up to $20,000 in benefits flowing to borrowers who racked up their debt at Harvard Law or Stanford Business School.

So there’s a lot there that could go wrong. And, a few weeks after Biden’s announcement, there’s reason to wonder if the White House will come to regret this hugely expensive sop to the Warren-Sanders wing of the party. For that to be the case, the political costs of loan forgiveness have to grow.

Well, when Biden made his announcement in late August, Democrats were surging. Talk of a “red tsunami” had given way to hopes for a “red ripple.” Biden was riding high, the spotlight was squarely on Trump, and political coverage was filled with stories on the abysmal showing of GOP senate candidates.

Now, a new Trafalgar poll shows that the public leans slightly against Biden’s plan, and that independents oppose it 64-35. While Biden had benefited from the sense that inflation was cooling, this week’s consumer price index report sparked renewed concern about persistent inflation. Sustained price increases will make it a lot easier for Republicans to paint Biden as feckless on inflation and to explain the downside of Biden shoveling vast sums of taxpayer dollars into the pockets of privileged law school grads. Meanwhile, this may not go quietly away, as progressives are already clamoring for more giveaways and Democratic senators are urging the White House to extend loan forgiveness to parents.

Since Labor Day, polling on crucial Senate contests in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Colorado looks much better than it did for Republicans just a few weeks ago. After a summer of Democrats feeling pretty good about things, a post-Labor Day crash would leave the party looking for a culprit. If things go poorly for Democrats in November, a high-profile White House maneuver that undercut the party’s messaging on inflation, funneled taxpayer funds to the privileged, and fueled noisy demands for “more, more” might just fit the bill. If things turn out that way, Biden will have managed to do for student loan forgiveness what rising crime did for “defund the police.”

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