There’s No Point Digging In Your Heels For 2021 Prices Because They Don’t Exist Any More

A report from KTNV in Nevada. “Cynthia Dillion is a New Homes Sales Agent for Harmony Homes and she says she’s lucky if she hosts two tours a day to interested buyers. She says at a new development in West Las Vegas, selling a home has become a challenge. She says back in March, she had a waitlist, but now they struggle just to get people into their office. ‘We had an interest list of about 100 people per floor plan and we have 3-floor plans and now we have about 5 people on each one of those,’ Dillon said. A recent Las Vegas-based report by Home Builders Research says builders logged 434 net sales in July. That’s down 61.5% from the same month last year.”

The Modesto Bee in California. “The new owner that took over the Diablo Grande development two years ago is delinquent on more than $2 million in property taxes, according to a Stanislaus County tax collector listing. Angel’s Crossing LLC owes $2,072,208 in unpaid taxes on 65 parcels at the resort community in western Stanislaus County. Mike Crumb, a homeowner since 2006, said the clubhouse is closed and the two golf courses that once were the glory of Diablo Grande are dead. ‘That supposed developer has not spent one penny on this development,’ Crumb said.”

From WESH in Florida. “Twenty-four-point-five percent of pending sales were canceled in the Orlando metro area. ‘I did see a bit of that in the spring, early summer, when the interest rates pushed up to the 6% ceiling when people realized their payment could be anywhere from $500 to $1000 more so some people pulled back from buying in general,’ realtor Christine Elias said.”

The Coeur d’Alene Press in Idaho. “The number of homes for sale continues to grow in Kootenai County. According to the Coeur d’Alene Regional Realtors, there were 1,055 residential listings in July. That’s a 44% increase from 698 listings in May. The number of Kootenai County homes sold through July totaled 1,571, down 21% from a year ago. Lindsay Allen, Coeur d’Alene Regional Realtors president, said there continue to be price reductions, and some homes are back in the $400,000 range, with some even below that benchmark. ‘We’re starting to see that pop up again,’ Allen said.”

From Reuters. “‘Home price appreciation is set to come to a screeching halt under the weight of poor housing affordability and a deteriorating economic and financial environment,’ said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West. ‘This correction could happen all at once during a recession or gradually over time. No matter how you measure it today, home prices are extremely expensive.’”

From CTV News in Canada. “Local brokers say real estate in Calgary experienced a surge in early spring, and demand has come down. ‘It’s definitely settled. We don’t have the frenetic pace. We don’t have the multiple offers,’ said Karen Fawcett, a Calgary real estate agent. ‘Calgary’s never achieved the big bubble (that) occurred in Toronto and Vancouver. We’ve remained relatively stable.’”

“Derek Cook listed his investment property in southwest Calgary in February, but decided to sell it months later for about 10 per cent less than the initial asking price. ‘We didn’t get quite the price we were hoping for in a hot market, but we were fortunate to sell at a reasonable price in July,’ said Cook.”

From CBC News. “With a housing market that’s pricing out many in the Greater Toronto Area and stricter mortgage rules in Canada, private lending is becoming more popular among those looking to secure loans to buy a home — but experts warn there are risks involved. ‘I’m seeing people who certainly would have been at the bank not so long ago who just have no choice but to turn to private lending,’ said Zahra Marani, managing partner for real estate and private lending with Marani Law LLP. ‘Not only are we seeing an increase in the need for private funds, we’re also seeing an increase in the rates that are being agreed upon by the borrowers and lenders and the brokers, because it’s costing more to borrow at the banks.’”

“Marcel Ghazouli, a licensed mortgage broker with Premiere Mortgage Centre, says he’s also noticing more clients borrow from private lenders often at sharply higher interest rates than would be available through a bank. Ghazouli says private lending, which is typically short-term loans that can be anywhere from a year to 18 months, are designed to ‘bridge the gap between one scenario and the next,’ such as moving from a private lender back to a more traditional institution, such as a bank.”

“‘What many people don’t realize is that these private mortgages don’t automatically renew once they’re up for renewal,’ he said. ‘The lender can impose a renewal fee.’ TRREB president Kevin Crigger said while he personally hasn’t seen a large amount of clients turning to private lenders, ‘qualification definitely is a concern for some and people are qualifying for less,’ as the mortgage stress test continues to increase along with interest rates.”

The Wairarapa Times Age. “There is light at the end of the tunnel for renters and buyers alike as a new report suggests New Zealand could soon be facing a housing surplus. In the latest Inner Kiwi release, Kiwibank said the market was turning from a ‘famine’ to a ‘feast,’ adding that there was a growing surplus of houses ahead. Wairarapa Property Investors Association president Tim Horsbrugh said he agreed with what Kiwibank was saying, saying that the big difference now was the sharp decline in immigration. ‘When house prices increased 30 per cent in two years it was expected that this was not normal and they would reduce back. Landlords are seeing surplus rentals on the market. It’s starting to get harder to find good tenants, so rents will stabilise.’”

“Harcourts Masterton managing director Prue Hamill said changes in the market were already being felt in Wairarapa. ‘The market has changed everywhere except Christchurch and Otago. Locally, as I’ve touched on before, we’ve had less of a [price] drop and more of a correction. There are more open homes and more offers on properties.’”

The Daily Telegraph in Australia. “Continuing low stock levels will keep prestige markets buoyant early in spring, the leading agents of Sydney’s east and north say, though top auctioneer Damien Cooley warns of a ‘bloodbath’ should there be a late surge of listings in November and December. ‘It all comes down to realistic expectations and listening to the response to the marketing campaign… creating competitive tension and producing stellar results,’ said Luxe Listings star Gavin Rubinstein. ‘But there’s no point digging in your heels for 2021 prices because they don’t exist any more.’”

From Vietnam Net. “Falling liquidity was attributed to a surge in real estate inventories and a decline in homebuyers’ down payments, making it harder to manage businesses and cash flows, given that credit has been choked and the corporate bond issuing channel tightened. Some investors joked that a down payment is a business’ savings, as it will be recorded in an income statement. However, according to businesses’ financial statements, the first half of the year saw a decrease in down payments, while estate inventories skyrocketed.”

“Nguyen Van Dinh, chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors, said the housing market is entering a rebalancing phase. ‘The way things are, the market could fall into a state of being frozen, so the policies need revising to help the market rebalance and reduce losses,’ Dinh noted.”

The South China Morning Post. “Even estates that have seen the priciest HOS flats in recent years, such as Charming Garden in western Mong Kok and Fu Keung Court in Yau Yat Chuen, have reported losses and prices well below market levels for lived-in homes in August. In Charming Garden in western Mong Kok, a 484 sq ft flat sold for HK$4.64 million before premium, according to agents. It was between 18 and 24 per cent cheaper compared to similar flats in the estate.”

“A 401 sq ft flat at Fu Hong House in Fu Keung Court changed hands for HK$4.95 million at a loss of HK$350,000, or 6.6 per cent, this month, according to Full Mark Property Agency. The flat was bought for HK$5.3 million in early 2018. ‘For [lived-in] HOS homes that change hands under the current market conditions, if the owner bought at a high level from 2017 to 2019 and now wants to resell, there is a great chance of loss,’ said Derek Chan, head of research at Ricacorp Properties. ‘Wider losses are also possible, as the home price [outlook] remains bearish in the coming months.’”

From Al Jazeera. “China’s property market is in the midst of a slow-moving crisis. Real estate prices have plummeted as authorities seek to rein in unsustainable debt and market speculation. Hundreds of thousands of homebuyers are refusing to pay their mortgages for pre-sold properties as developers struggle to complete housing projects on time. Property prices declined for an 11th-straight month in July and are down as much as 30 percent compared with last year.”

“‘What China is experiencing right now is a policy-induced crisis,’ Gabriel Wildau, the managing director of risk analysis company Teneo, told Al Jazeera. ‘What I mean by that is, people have been warning about a housing bubble for many years, and for good reason, but the acute stress that the market is under right now is the direct result of very draconian restrictions on lending to developers that were imposed about a year and a half ago.’”