Is The Winner Really The Winner? Or Are You The Loser?

A report from Pagosa Daily Post in Colorado. “If you are a buyer who has been sitting on the sidelines for the last year, there is some good news for you. Prices are coming down across the board for homes, condos, and vacant land. I am predicting a 10% correction as supply and demand is shifting. There were 71 sales in the month of July compared to 116 last July. There are 111 pending sales at the moment compared to 204 last year at this time. There’s a lot more inventory than there used to be. There are 183 homes available on the market today compared to just 35 last year in March, and there are 29 condos today compared to 3 last year. Last but not least, vacation rentals are front and center again. The County has enacted a 6-month moratorium on all new vacation rentals effective September 1.”

The Express News in Texas. “Home sellers in San Antonio are lowering their asking prices, data from two real estate brokerages indicates. Sellers dropped prices for about 37.5 percent of homes on the market in June, compared with 20.2 percent during the same month last year, according to Redfin. That’s not just happening in San Antonio. Of the 97 metropolitan areas Redfin analyzed, over three-quarters saw more than 25 percent of sellers lower asking prices in June.”

“Boise, Idaho; Denver; Salt Lake City; and Tacoma, Wash., topped the list for the biggest share of homes with price reductions. Elsewhere in Texas, 41.6 percent of Austin homes on the market in June had price reductions, followed by 38 percent in Houston, 37.4 percent in Dallas and 36.7 percent in Fort Worth. ‘If demand plateaus in the coming months, price cuts are likely to be less common as sellers realize the market has shifted and price realistically from the start,’ Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari said. ‘But if demand falls further, sellers will continue to play catch-up and cut prices to attract buyers.’”

From Arizona Family. “Phoenix’s housing market shows signs of stabilizing amid more supply and higher mortgage rates. There is nearly double the number of active listings compared to last year. According to The Sakala Group, that’s 21,263 today compared to 11,228 at the same time last year. Such an increase is giving more buyers options. And Realtor Shelley Sakala says the mortgage rates also put buyers on pause. ‘One example I can give you right away, is during the peak of the frenzy, we were seeing people waiving inspections, and now we have people, that are requesting after inspection, for you to tighten up a face plate on an outlet,’ Sakala said.”

“According to her housing market info, the average number of days on the market now is 34. Price reductions are also happening to compete in this market. In July, there were 1,900 listing price reductions. A rarity during the Valley’s housing market peak in March 2022. ‘It’s the fastest slow down I’ve ever seen in 18 years of real estate. You know those interest rates spiked up and priced a lot of people out. Also, just the sticker shock of that, people got frightened,’ she said.”

The Phoenix Business Journal in Arizona. “Valley home prices dropped in July, leaving many homebuyers wondering if a buyer’s market is imminent. The monthly average home sales price in July dropped 9.6% compared to the previous month, from $602,586 to $546,403, according to The Cromford Report. The median sale price in July fell 4.8%, from $475,000 to $452,000.”

“It’s also still a seller’s market in the luxury sector, said Frank Aazami of Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty. ‘Sellers control the transaction,’ he said. ‘They can — and have — declined to entertain great offers. In adjusting declining markets, if sellers pass on entertaining fair offers, they’ll end up selling/netting less. Those who are carrying a huge cost can hurt their net sheet. That’s how short sales became so popular — they held on too long.’”

WKRN Nashville in Tennessee. “Ini mini miny moe. Home buyers now have a little​ say so. ‘Interest rates have ticked up,’ explains the director for relocation at RE/MAX Advantage Jeff Checko, ‘It’s been much talked about, but the inventory has also picked up over 100% from last year and that’s great news for buyers because they actually have a choice instead of taking what they get. At least right now you can say, ‘hey, what time do you get off work?’ Maybe we go Friday, depending on the circumstances.’”

“It’s all thanks to a shift in the market caused by several things. First, there’s more inventory. Currently, more than 5,600 new listings fill the Greater Nashville market making it the second biggest year-over-year increase for a city second only to Phoenix, Arizona, according to the latest RE/MAX National Housing Report.”

From Boise Dev in Idaho. “The latest data, from the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, shows a slight decline in the median price in both Ada and Canyon counties. In Canyon, the peak came in April, and with three months in the rearview mirror, the price is off 7% from the top. The inventory level across the two counties also continued to increase in July. As of the last day of the month, a total of 3,773 homes were available for sale. That’s the most houses on the market since before the COVID-19 pandemic began to impact Idaho. It’s also night and day from January 2021 when seasonal trends and the overall frenzy of the market meant only 429 homes were for sale as of the last day of that month.”

“Data from national brokerage Redfin shows that far fewer homes are selling than in the past three calendar years. The firm said 250 homes sold in the metro area from June 27th through July 24th. Last year, 385 homes sold in the comparable period — and in 2020, nearly 500 homes sold. Redfin’s data also shows that more than one in five homes for sale has seen sellers drop the list price from where they started. It’s a dramatic change from 2020 when almost no homes had price drops. Redfin said the Boise metro led the nation in that metric in June.”

“Homebuilder Corey Barton is quoted in the piece as saying the housing market went ‘too far. We’ve somewhat run out of the people that were really serious about moving,’ because of COVID-19. ‘We’re going to have to safely be back in the $300,000s.’ Currently, CBH Homes’ website shows 47 homes for sale under $400,000, with many in Canyon County, Kuna and even Emmett. But the homebuilder offers many more for $400,000 or more – 407.”

The Los Angeles Times. “A lesson in ambition is currently unfolding in Beverly Park, where an Italian-inspired showplace known as Villa Firenze just returned to market at $79.5 million — a whopping $40.5 million less than the previous asking price of $120 million. Over the last few years, no home’s purported value has fluctuated more wildly than that of Villa Firenze. The prized property first made headlines in 2017 when it surfaced for sale at $165 million — one of the highest prices in Southern California at the time.”

“Clearly overpriced, the 31,000-square-foot mega-mansion lingered on the market for years before it was finally auctioned off for $51 million in 2021. The massive sale made it the priciest home ever to be sold at auction at the time, but it still fell more than $100 million shy of the original price tag.”

The Ottawa Sun in Canada. “The Ottawa Real Estate Board released its analysis of July listings and sales and declared a ‘profound slowdown’ in the local home resale market. ‘July’s numbers reveal that buyers are indeed putting on the brakes more heavily than what is typically expected during the mid-summer sales dip,’ board president Penny Torontow said.”

“‘The craziness is over,’ said Realtor Yvan Rhéaume. He had one buyer recently purchase a townhouse with conditions on financing and a home inspection. ‘That was the first time in probably three years, at least,’ Rhéaume said of the conditions. On top of that, he was able to negotiate the price.”

“Wendy Bell, the broker of record in an office of 250 agents, said news about higher interest rates and inflation had an impact on the market starting in the spring. ‘That kind of put the brakes on things,’ Bell said, opining that another interest rate increase would be ‘devastating.’”

“Broker Dawna Erskine said some sellers have been confused about why their homes aren’t attracting the same large offers that some neighbours received just months ago. ‘That’s how drastic things have changed,’ Erskine said, and she believes ‘we are going back to the pre-COVID days’ when it comes to home prices. Erskine said the pandemic has been a ‘nightmare’ while trying to evaluate true values of properties for her eager buyer clients and trying to bid on homes against others willing to pay sky-high prices.”

“‘I can’t tell you how often I’ve worked to guide buyers (and advised) not to buy this,’ Erskine said. ‘Is the winner really the winner? Or are you the loser?’”

The Daily Mail Australia. “A young couple has been trolled online for ‘impulse buying’ after they paid $1.5million for a terrace in a trendy Melbourne neighbourhood. Darcy and Tessa bought the home at 110 Barkly Street, East Brunswick, at an auction on Saturday, beating out the next bid by a measly $500. The terrace went to auction with a price guide of $1.3million to $1.43million. The couple paid $1,500,500 for the deceased estate.”

“‘To be honest, we weren’t really looking, we were just looking casually and this one popped up,’ Tessa told Domain. Darcy added: ‘There’s a bit of concern around with what housing prices are doing but this one really stood out to us, and it turned out we got it.’”

“Their story then went viral on Reddit, with users mocking the couple for being ‘entitled’ because they made an ‘impulse’ $1.5million purchase. ‘I mean, we’ve all been there, right? Just wandering down the street to get coffee or something, you’ve got $1.5 million burning a hole in your pocket, and you stumble across an auction – damn it!’ ‘I guess I don’t feel so bad about impulse buying a Snickers at the Coles checkout now,’ another replied. Another Reddit user said: ‘Joke’s on them, be at least $500,000 less in about six months.’”

From Bloomberg. “When investor demand for Chinese property debt was approaching its peak back in 2018, a banker could pull together the makings of a multi-million dollar deal during a Saturday boat trip around Hong Kong’s harbor and barely look up from her drink while doing it. Now, the $203 billion market—which once yielded several deals a week and padded portfolios across the world from Pimco to UBS—is all but dead. And offshore investors are swallowing almost all of the losses.”

“Stalled property projects have sparked protests, with frustrated homebuyers in more than 100 cities refusing to pay mortgages for unfinished apartments. And the long-held assumption that the country would bail out its property titans crumbled when China Evergrande Group—whose 2025 bond had been one of the most liquid and widely traded in the world—defaulted in December. Having once traded as high as 105 cents, it now changes hands at a paltry 7 cents.”

“Now, defaults are picking up pace, more than $100 billion in market value has been wiped out and Hong Kong’s bankers have no deals to arrange. Fidelity International Ltd.’s China high-yield fund has lost 37% so far this year and its assets have dwindled to $985 million, less than half their mid-2021 peak. Value Partners Group Ltd.’s fund has lost 32%.”

“Doubts about the financial health of some companies began simmering years earlier. Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer, has spent much of the past decade lurching from one liquidity crisis to the next. But few imagined the Chinese Communist Party presiding over such a dramatic, sector-wide collapse. ‘No one could have predicted this. If someone tells you they predicted this, they’re a genius or lying through their teeth,’ said Desmond How, fixed income chief investment officer at Gaoteng Global Asset Management Ltd.”