The last time the House of Representatives changed party control in a presidential election year was 1952. According to David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, Democrats have gained House seats in five of the past six presidential elections, with 2004 being the exception. These statistics may explain why a significant number of Republicans in the House are calling it quits. Thus far, 22 Republicans have announced they will retire from the body and not run for another office, whereas only six Democrats have announced their retirements.

Retirements for Republicans this cycle began to pick up in August and have been growing ever since. Filing deadlines vary from state to state — in some states, the deadlines have already passed. And members considering retirement want to give new candidates from their party sufficient time to get on the ballot and mount a campaign.

Nate Gonzales of Roll Call tells us that the average number of retirements for each full two-year cycle since 1976 has been 23, so this many retirements so early in the cycle could indicate that the GOP isn’t confident of its prospects in the fall. Additionally, not many current Republican representatives had served in the minority before the Democrats regained control of the House in 2018. Being in the minority is a lot less enjoyable than being in the majority, so this too may explain some of the retirements.

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