When Money Is No Longer Free

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Tacoma, Boise, Sacramento and other cities were listed among those seeing home listing-price declines. Provo and Tacoma saw the largest percentage of dropping prices, with 102 of 108 metros Redfin reviewed seeing the share of homes with a price drop increasing from a year earlier. Tacoma, Boise, Sacramento and other cities were listed among those seeing home listing-price declines. Provo and Tacoma saw the largest percentage of dropping prices, with 102 of 108 metros Redfin reviewed seeing the share of homes with a price drop increasing from a year earlier.”

“Kellie Van Essen, an agent with John L. Scott Tacoma University Place office, noted it’s happening nationwide, not just here. ‘It’s a little bit shocking. The change, even looking at some of my listings from even probably March to May or June,’ has been notable, she said.”

“As the U.S. housing market is showing big signs of cooling — from mortgage lender layoffs to several consecutive months of dropping sales — it’s hitting home in Utah in a big way. The tables are starting to turn. Motivated sellers are beginning to temper their expectations that buyers will pay just about anything to lock in a home. And price listing cuts aren’t unusual — in fact they’re common for sellers, especially motivated sellers, to cut their listing price if they’re finding their initial listing price might have been too high to be competitive with other listings. ‘There are two kinds of sellers in today’s market: Those who already know the market has cooled, and those who are learning about the cooling market as they go through the selling process,’ said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather.”

“Homes in Northeast Florida are becoming increasingly less affordable. But there are signals that the market is leveling off, according to NEFAR President Mark Rosener. ‘I was talking to an agent not too long ago. And they said, you know, Mark, I just put a listing on, instead of getting 21 offers in six hours, I got three in four days. So you know, it still is a competitive market, it still absolutely is a seller’s market, but we’re starting to see some of that craziness in the marketplace kind of level out a little bit,’ Rosener said. ‘The demand was kind of plateauing for us, which was a great opportunity for us to start to see inventory, build up a little bit, so that our buyers had a little bit more to choose from.’”

“Like many househunters in the DC region, Liz Mandle’s clients had been running into stiff competition as they searched for a home. ‘We were unsuccessful against six and eight offers, but won recently when we were up against only one other buyer,’ Mandle of Compass told UrbanTurf. ‘There have definitely been some price reductions in recent week,’ said Max Rabin, an agent with TTR Sotheby’s International Realty.”

“Even before the rate hike, according to TrendVision, housing prices in Stanislaus County have dipped by 2% in the past month. Daniel Del Real, a broker associate at PMZ Real Estate said buyers and sellers should be ready for the market to continue to soften through the year. ‘Be prepared for more inventory, less pendings and sold and a pullback of prices in the third and fourth quarter of this year,’ he said. The TrendVision report shows inventory in Stanislaus County has increased by 57% since 2021, but 5.7% fewer houses were sold and there were 5.1% fewer housing sales pending in the same span of time.”

“Home building permits nationwide sank by more than economists projected in May. Year-to-date through May, Frisco has fallen 42%, Celina is down 34%, Prosper is down 17%, Princeton is off 14% and McKinney is down 11%, compared to the same January-through-May period last year. On the DFW sales front, Ben Caballero CEO of HomesUSA.com added that builders are listing more new homes in the MLS. Previously, new homes sold so fast that builders were selling from waiting lists and not listing as many homes in the MLS. Beginning in Mid-March, Caballero began seeing a steady increase in the number of MLS listings, he said. New home MLS listings in North Texas increasing to 1,623 compared to 933 in April, said Caballero.”

“Major brokerages, mortgage lenders, and property-tech companies have all announced varying degrees of layoffs over the last few months and experts expect the trend to continue. The layoffs are a response to the cooling housing market. ‘We could be facing years, not months, of fewer home sales,’ Glenn Kelman, the CEO of Redfin, said in a written statement after announcing the brokerage would be laying off 470 employees, or about 8 percent of its workforce. ‘We don’t have enough work for our agents and support staff.’”

“The reality of a swift and dramatic change in the Toronto-area real estate market is sinking in for sellers and buyers. Andre Kutyan, broker with Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd., says the number of properties sitting on the market has swelled in some family-friendly neighourhoods in Toronto as agents try to find an asking price that will entice buyers. Many sellers still have their heads stuck in the first quarter, says Mr. Kutyan, and failed offer nights make buyers even more hesitant. ‘In the past they would put their best foot forward out of fear of not getting it, or not getting a second chance. Now they’re fearful of spending too much.’”

“Meanwhile, agents are reporting that some buyers who signed a sales agreement at the market peak are asking for an abatement in the price from sellers. Some deals fall apart all together and appraisals are falling short as prices slide. There are also buyers who are straining to pay their mortgages with the recent run-up in inflation. Pritesh Parekh, a real estate agent with Century 21 Legacy in Toronto recently heard from one young man who received cash from his family for a down payment and purchased a $600,000 condo unit with his girlfriend in 2021.”

“But they are talking to Mr. Parekh about selling because they feel weighed down by the cost of the mortgage, taxes and monthly maintenance fees. Now, they’re paying more for food, gas and other living expenses. ‘It’s been less than a year,’ Mr. Parekh says. ‘Now they’re really struggling.’”

“Cameron O’Dell, 29, is seeing his buy-to-let margins get hammered because he is on SVR. ‘My mortgage lender has increased my mortgage rate five times since Christmas. Some of the letters telling me the rates are going up again have been less than two weeks apart,’ he said. ‘From an investment point of view, my profitability is becoming close to zero and my outgoings on the property could quickly exceed the income. I am close to the tipping point. If I had more time on my hands, I would sell the property now. If interest rates keep rising, I could soon be at a loss, and if there is a recession and house prices fall off a cliff I could also lose out on the capital growth.’”

“‘I have seen several accidental landlords leave the market because it is no longer profitable and they are worried about about further rate rises eating away at their already slim margins once taxes are taken,’ said Chris Sykes, of mortgage brokers Private Finance.”

“House prices fell in half of the country’s suburbs over the last three months, and that is proof the market downturn is spreading, a property researcher says. Of those suburbs, 11 had price falls of over 5% and another 29 had falls of over 4%. Those suburbs were in regions around the country, whereas in the last analysis the suburbs with the biggest falls were all in the Auckland region. In dollar terms, the biggest drop was in Point Chevalier in Auckland where the median price fell by $104,400, or 4.6%.”

“CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said the signs of market weakness were very clear, and it was noticeable that the downturn had spread and was now geographically broad based. ‘There is no pattern to the types of suburbs, or price brackets, that are being affected. Price declines are occurring in suburbs which are considered more affordable, as well as those that are more expensive.’”

“Many first-home buyers, downsizers and upsizers are now hesitating, waiting to see what the real estate market does next, said Ewan Morton, managing director of one of Sydney’s leading independent agencies, Morton & Morton. ‘The big question is, are prices going to slide further?’ he said. ‘With interest rates going up and inflationary pressures, while prices have come back $315,000 in the eastern suburbs – although that’s compared to the $927,000 gained – will that slow down further? That’s what everyone doesn’t quite understand … We’re all trying to pick the bottom of the market.’”

“Four years ago, real estate agent Wang Zhiqiang was selling up to 30 apartments a day in the northern Chinese city of Dandong.  Chinese speculators in the frontier border city were betting on values soaring on talk that North Korea, just across the river, would soon open up. That was until late last year when the Dandong property market ran out of steam and Wang’s luck ran out.”

“‘The bull run has come to an end. North Korea didn’t keep its word about opening up and reforming, and now China’s economy is suffering,’ Wang told AFR Weekend. ‘It is a struggle as all the construction and property transactions have stopped.’”

“He says it will be difficult to attract new buyers, and is worried that a flood of investors putting apartments back into the market will add more pressure. The situation in Dandong is a snapshot of what is happening in cities throughout China. The once booming property market was in trouble even before the COVID-19 lockdowns started early this year.”

“Wang is confident the country will avoid a housing market crisis. ‘The Chinese government won’t allow it to happen. Besides, Chinese people’s obsession with property will support the market.’”

“With fervor in markets receding, investors will need to critically focus on fundamentals and security selection to ride out the turbulence, Abby Joseph Cohen said. ‘For the last few years, the fundamentals have mattered less than things like momentum and investor enthusiasm,’ she said. ‘When money is no longer free, you get to see a better picture of whether those corporate managers and those portfolios managers are actually doing a good job.’”