A report from Housing Wire. “BJ Witkopf is a mortgage specialist with Assurance Financial: Planet Earth has has gone from a ball of molten rock to ice, and then, to the climate we have today. Just like Earth, mortgage rates and housing markets are cyclic and we’re heading into another Ice Age. Rates will not come down this year. There is no spring buying season. The ARM and IO products are the same prices as the Conventional loans. FHA, VA and USDA aren’t accepted by sellers. Investors and trust funds keep buying the bottom of the market from under the first-time home buyer. Builders do not have inventory — or workers and supplies.”
“We can all look around our office and see those people right now — hanging on by that one deal. The first quarter of 2022 has already shown us substantial drops in volume. Do not be the last one to notice your Q1 numbers were just overflow Q4 pipelines. The Fed has no plans on helping us.”
From PBS. “The Federal Reserve is poised this week to accelerate its most drastic steps in three decades to attack inflation by making it costlier to borrow. What’s more, the Fed is also expected to announce Wednesday that it will begin quickly shrinking its vast stockpile of Treasury and mortgage bonds beginning in June. ‘I liken it to driving in reverse while using the rear-view mirror,’ said Diane Swonk, chief economist at the consulting firm Grant Thornton. ‘They just don’t know what obstacles they’re going to hit.’”
From Reuters. “First Sweden, now Australia. Two central banks that had said they saw no need for rate hikes until 2023 or 2024 have eaten humble pie in the space of a week. Australia on Tuesday hiked rates by 25bp to 0.35%, a larger hike than markets had bet on and confirmed more to come in the months ahead. It also doubled inflation forecasts for this year.. It comes after Sweden last week upped rates by 25 bps and flagged more at upcoming meetings.”
From CNBC. “Mortgage rates just hit their highest level since 2009, and home prices are continuing to experience double-digit gains. It is often said in the housing market that consumers don’t buy the home price, they buy the monthly payment. That payment is at a new high, up $552 (an increase of 38%) year to date to $1,809, and up $790 (or 72%) since the onset of the pandemic.”
The Morning Call in Pennsylvania. “Dale Kessler, a Realtor who specializes in selling foreclosed homes, thinks business will be picking up this year. With the end of the foreclosure moratorium last year, Kessler, the CEO of Realty 365 in Allentown, sees a trickle turning into a flood as a backlog of cases starts making its way toward completion. He said the numbers could rise into the hundreds. ‘I’m getting some foreclosures a little bit more consistently than I have the last couple of years,’ Kessler said. ‘In quarters three and four, we should see a little bit more of an uptick. And then once we get to the first and second quarter of next year, we should start to see a little bit more of a consistent flow.’”
From ABC Action News. “Rep. Dianne Hart’s phone has been ringing a lot lately, and when she answers, she hears a similar concern — over and over again. Property insurance is skyrocketing, mortgage rates are going up, and Florida homeowners are being pushed to the brink of foreclosure. ‘You keep helping renters. What about those of us who have mortgages?’ she said they ask her. ‘When are you all going to help us?’”
From WGRZ in New York. “Just a day after Jean Hoagland came to 2 On Your Side because of a zombie home, she and neighbors have complained about to the Town of Cheektowaga for years. However, in a statement from WSFS, officials say WSFS does not own the property and doesn’t service it either. 2 On Your Side asked why WSFS would be listed in the foreclosure documents then. This was the response we got: ‘Our name is likely on it because we hold a national bank charter and owners/investors (who bought the mortgage back securities) are using our charter for legal title of the loans. WSFS acts as a Trustee on behalf of many trusts that hold various real estate properties; however, we are not involved in the decision-making process or what properties are held in the various trusts.’”
The Los Angeles Times. “Cody Barbo never thought he would want to leave San Diego. But a couple of months ago, theCEO of venture-backed startup Trust & Will relocated with his family to Dallas — a move driven by his ability to work remotely and disillusionment after attempting to purchase a house in San Diego. ‘We started doing the math in California,’ said Barbo. ‘It’s not just the mortgage. We have child-care costs, all these added costs. It is a very expensive place, long-term, to live.’”
“California lost about 262,000 residents between July 2020 and July 2021, according to the Census Bureau. Of the 10 counties nationwide with the largest population losses, four were in California. New York also had four counties on the list. San Diego County’s net population loss was well under 1% — 0.3% to be exact — of its 3.28 million residents.”
“In comparison, Los Angeles County lost nearly 160,000 people, a 1.6% decline. San Francisco shed 55,800 people, or 6.3%. Santa Clara County, which encompasses Silicon Valley, lost 45,000 people, or 2.3%. Still, this is the first time in at least a decade that San Diego County has lost population year over year, according to California Department of Finance data.”
Canadian Real Estate. “HouseSigma is a brokerage that uses a technological model to track home prices in real-time. By doing so, they are able to monitor market conditions as they change in near real-time as opposed to things like the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) Market Watch report, which is only reported on a monthly basis. According to the firm, in just two months from February 2022 to April 2022, there have already been significant decreases in the price of homes in Toronto and the GTA.”
“In February of 2022, detached homes in Toronto sold for an average price of $1.65 million. Now, the average price has fallen to $1.45 million, a drop of about 12%. A similar decrease was seen in the semi-detached market with a 13.5% reduction in price while condos went down by just 6.8%. The hardest hit of all was the segment of townhouses which have seen a 22% decrease in price in just under two months. At the same time, the report also shows that available listings were up by 76% and the average number of days a home spent on the market has doubled.”
“The phenomenon isn’t just limited to the City of Toronto. Almost every other area in the GTA (with the exception of Burlington) has seen price decreases. Mississauga and Brampton were both down 11% on average. Areas closest to the downtown core have retained value the most while regions further out have fallen further, such as the Municipality of Brock which saw prices fall almost 30% in the period analyzed.”
“Sudden changes in the market are often met with much emotion from both asset owners and potential buyers and some may now be feeling a bit of anxiety about just where things are headed, particularly those who bought at the recent peak prices. This can even lead to hysteria which can even make things worse for the market.”
The Daily Telegraph in Australia. “Sydney home prices have begun to fall again and more drops are expected if the Reserve Bank of Australia pushes the button on a rate hike in May or June. Growth in prices had been slowing since late 2021 and PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said the market ‘stagnated’ for much of 2022. ‘Sydney has the weakest momentum going into what will be a period of rate rises and affordability is more of an issue so, potentially, the Sydney market will be more susceptible to price falls,’ Mr Ryan said.”
“Mortgage broker Rebecca Jarrett-Dalton said rate rises were weighing on many buyers’ decision to get into the market and some were fearful of overpaying. Some buyers wanted to wait for further price falls, she added. ‘It becomes a bit self-fulfilling,’ she said. ‘No one buys because they think the prices will drop, so they drop.’”
From News Hub. “It’s now a buyer’s market in New Zealand’s main cities with new data showing the tables have turned for the housing market. Last month buyers had plenty of choices, with stock up by 70.8 percent nationally compared to April 2021. Compared to last year, the biggest increase was in Manawatu/Whanganui where stock was up 174.8 percent year-on-year. Following close behind were Wellington (up 157.3 percent year-on-year) and Hawke’s Bay (up 144.2 percent year-on-year).”
“Stock also more than doubled year-on-year in Central North Island (up 135.9 percent), Wairarapa (up 133.1 percent), Bay of Plenty (up 116.6 percent), Nelson & Bays (up 115.5 percent), Waikato (up 109.8 percent) and Otago (up 103.0 percent). Having shifted into a buyers’ market, Auckland also saw stock levels lift by 42.4 percent year-on-year, with 9990 homes available for sale in the region during April.”