Since January, according to the Guttmacher Institute, 21 states have introduced legislation to ban abortion at 15 weeks and three states (Arizona, Florida, and Kentucky) have enacted it. Other states have introduced legislation to place restrictions on abortion’s use. Although the issue has received steady news coverage, the attention does not appear to have had a substantial impact on public attitudes—yet.

We turned to the weekly online surveys from The Economist/YouGov for perspective. Each week, they ask people about how important around a dozen issues are to them. They then ask which of the issues is most important. In their latest online poll from April 26–27, 45 percent said abortion was very important to them, 27 percent somewhat important, 16 percent not very important, and 12 percent unimportant. The issue wasn’t in the top tier in terms of high (very) importance. Sixty percent or more mentioned health care, jobs and the economy, crime, education, and national security. Half or more said taxes, civil rights, and separately civil liberties, and guns were very important to them.

The next question about the most important issue put health care and jobs in the top spots followed by climate and the environment. Abortion was mentioned by 4 percent. When Harvard/Harris pollsters asked people in a late April online survey to volunteer three issues that were most important to them, abortion was not recorded as something people mentioned—although 7 percent mentioned women’s issues. In its monthly question about the most important problem facing the country, Gallup pollsters did not record a mention of abortion in January, February, or March. A new Quinnipiac poll asked about the most urgent issue facing the country and gave people 11 choices. Thirty-one percent put inflation at the top. Five percent mentioned abortion.

As the
country gets closer to a possible Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health and with considerable activity at the state level,
one might have expected the issue to be gaining in importance. But at least at
this stage, this does not seem to be the case nationally. There are some
interesting subgroup responses. Fifty-one percent of women said abortion was
very important in The Economist/YouGov poll compared to 40 percent of men.
Women’s concern has ticked up since January. In the past, men and women did not
usually disagree on abortion, but that could be changing.

We also looked at views of Democrats, Republicans, and independents, again using The Economist/YouGov data. About half of Democrats have said the issue is very important to them since mid-January, whereas Republicans’ responses have varied more. In the latest poll, their responses were virtually identical: 49 percent for Democrats and 48 percent for Republicans. The “very important” responses for independents have been lower. In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, 47 percent trusted Democrats to do a better job on abortion, and 37 percent trusted the Republicans. Those responses were very close to responses on a similar question the pollsters asked in 2014.

It is possible, of course, that if or when the Supreme Court rules, Americans will have a different view of the issue. We know from Gallup’s polling in 2019 and 2020 that around a quarter say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views, while about half say it is just one of many important factors, and a quarter believe it is not a major issue affecting their vote. That could change and more people could become single-issue abortion voters, though it isn’t clear whether the pro-life or pro-choice side would benefit. A second possibility is that the Supreme Court decision will be a muddled one and keep opinion on the issue where it has been for decades. It is also possible—if the Court’s ruling is narrow—that most people won’t care much about policies other states are enacting. Finally, activists appear to be embracing new strategies to work around whatever the Court decides. Only time will tell.

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