On April 22,
Election Day 2022 will be 200 days away. A lot can happen, of course, but
here’s a quick look at some social issues that may motivate voters in November.

Abortion: No one knows how this issue will play out once the Supreme Court rules in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, a case involving Mississippi’s ban on most abortions after 15 weeks. Survey findings may provide clues. The last time Gallup asked the question in 2020, a quarter said they would only vote for a candidate who shared their views on abortion, while 47 percent said it would be one of many factors and 24 percent said it was not a major issue for them. In the poll, 30 percent of pro-lifers said they were single-issue abortion voters, while 19 percent of pro-choicers were. Second, Americans want to keep abortion legal, but support restrictions. They support legal abortion in the first trimester, but not in the second or third. Third, attitudes differ by state. In October last year, Gallup wrote that the views of people in Texas aligned with the views of those in red states. Eighteen percent of Texans said abortion should be legal under any circumstance, compared to 35 percent of those in blue states. We covered 50 years of abortion attitudes in this AEI Public Opinion study.

Marijuana legalization: The House has voted to decriminalize marijuana federally. It isn’t clear the legislation will advance in the Senate. Public opinion has been moving on legalization for some time. In an April US News/YouGov poll, 60 percent said it should be legal, while 27 percent disagreed. Seventy-two percent of Democrats favored legalization; 46 percent of Republicans did. Fifty-seven percent said they supported expunging marijuana-related convictions for non-violent offenders (22 percent were opposed). In the poll, more people said that regular use of tobacco, and separately, alcohol, were more harmful to a person’s health than marijuana.

Transgender rights: In an August YouGov poll, 40 percent said a person should be able to legally self-identify as a gender different from the one they were assigned at birth, while 38 percent disagreed. In another question, 37 percent agreed that “a transgender woman is a woman,” but 46 percent disagreed. The results were similar on a question about transgender men. There were strong partisan differences. A majority in another question said transgender women should not be allowed to take part in women’s sporting events, while 29 percent said they should. In a May 2021 Gallup question, 34 percent said that transgender athletes should be able to play on the sports teams that match their current gender identity while 62 percent said they should play on teams that matched their birth gender. In several polls, Americans have said that transgender people should be able to serve in the military if they meet requirements.

Immigration and Title 42: Americans are sympathetic to creating a path to citizenship for those who came here illegally if they meet certain requirements. In PRRI’s 2013 to 2021 questions, solid majorities give this response. Immigration doesn’t rival inflation, but it is a top-tier concern. In an early April Morning Consult/Politico poll, 47 percent trusted the Republicans in Congress over the Democrats on immigration (36 percent). In the poll, 54 percent of registered voters opposed the Biden administration’s plan to remove the border controls Donald Trump imposed to slow COVID’s spread (Title 42), while 35 percent supported it. Sixty-two percent of Democrats approved, while 9 percent of Republicans did.

Student loans: The early April Morning Consult/Politico poll of registered voters found that 1 percent had student loan debt of $100,000 or more and 3 percent had debt between $50,000 and $99,000. Eighty percent of the population had no student loan debt. In the poll, 29 percent did not want to forgive any student loan debt and 19 percent wanted to forgive it all. Most respondents were somewhere in between in thinking about overall or needs-based relief.

Parents’ concerns: Critical race
theory has faded from most polls, but the issue may motivate some parents to
vote on it or on other issues involving school curricula in November. Pollsters’
language used to describe the Florida legislation that has been dubbed “don’t
say gay” pulls people in different directions. People oppose it when pollsters
stress its overly broad and vague nature. They generally support it when
questions focus on young children’s ages.

Mask mandates: Mask mandates
aren’t the lightning rod they once were in public opinion. The latest Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index
finds that 44 percent support their state or local government requiring masks
in all public places, with 56 percent opposed. Fifty-one percent support local
school districts requiring everyone in schools, including teachers, students,
and administrators to mask up, with 48 percent opposed.

At this point, inflation is voters’ major concern—higher than any of the issues we’ve explored here. But each one of the issues above could motivate voters who feel strongly about it. And those votes could be decisive in close contests in a closely divided country.

The post Social Issue Scorecard: The 2022 Elections appeared first on American Enterprise Institute – AEI.