On March 23, 2022, Al Shabab terrorists infiltrated Mogadishu’s international airport, killing at least six people. The attack shocked Somalis and diplomats alike. The airport is Mogadishu’s green zone, home to almost all foreign embassies, the American embassy included — as well as aid organizations and foreign companies. That Al Shabab staged a successful attack against a supposedly impenetrable site highlights just how far Somalia has fallen under the tenure of President Mohamed Farmaajo.

After all, when Farmaajo assumed the presidency in 2017, there was
broad optimism that Somalia had turned the corner from the days of civil war
and starvation. Farmaajo had spent decades in America, both as a diplomat and
then in exile as a Buffalo Housing Authority bureaucrat. When he returned to
Somalia in 2010 to become prime minister, he earned a reputation as a reformer.

It was an illusion. Rather than continue Somalia’s democratic
recovery as president, he sought to destroy it. He consolidated power and
undermined the federalism in which Somalis and the international community placed
their hopes for peace, and he derailed efforts to hold one-man, one-vote
elections. While billions of dollars in humanitarian and security assistance
poured into the country, he weaponized it by denying assistance to regions run
by competitors and diverting security forces to fight rivals rather than
terrorists. When his term ended in February 2021, he simply refused to step
down.

Farmaajo’s plans, however, were just upended. On March 19, Said Abdullahi Dani, the president of Somalia’s Puntland state, announced his candidacy for Somalia’s presidency. He has, almost immediately, become the frontrunner as both Somalis and their international supporters look for an alternative to Farmaajo.

During his three years as Puntland’s
president, Dani has overseen a regional renaissance. A decade ago, Puntland was
known as a haven for piracy and lawlessness. Today, it is a hub for business
and investment. When I visited Garowe, Puntland’s capital last year, I was able
to walk around at night without security to visit shopping malls and relax at
coffee shops. Men and women were out in force, taking advantage of the peace
Dani had brought.

Locals — even those who initially were dubious
about Dani — had grown to appreciate his leadership. Dani had reformed
Puntland’s army and increased soldiers’ salaries. Dani invested in
infrastructure, building new roads, bridges, and water diversion and reservoir
projects so important in a region that suffers frequent drought.

While Transparency International consistently ranks Somalia as among the world’s most corrupt countries, under Dani’s leadership, Puntland has leapfrogged over Mogadishu in terms of quality governance. He created a single treasury account for government institutions to prevent office directors from treating their accounts as personal slush funds. He also augmented transparency and accountability mechanisms. This does not mean there are neither conflicts of interest nor corruption in Puntland, but the trajectory of Garowe is clear.

While Farmaajo sought to undermine democracy, Dani showed it compatible with Somali society. He allowed new political parties to register and, last fall, he oversaw Somalia’s first one-man, one-vote elections in three Puntland districts. The fact that both Somaliland and Puntland have held such elections negates any excuse Famaajo has to avoid similar polls in Mogadishu.

Nor does Dani engage in incitement to turn
Somalis against each other as a cynical distraction. Dani’s predecessors often distracted
from their own failings by pursuing territorial claims against neighboring
Somaliland at the cost of hundreds of lives. (When I drove from Somaliland to
Puntland, I saw thousands of spent shell casings near the border left over from
fighting just prior to Dani’s rise). While Dani has not forfeited Puntland’s
claims, he and Somaliland President Muse Bihi recognize that fighting is in the
interest of no one.

It is this broader perspective that has propelled Dani into a
national figure. Somalis I spoke with by Skype and WhatsApp in both Mogadishu
and southern Somalia praise his temperament. They not only recognize the
developments he has overseen, but they also credit him with warning early and
often about the danger of Somalis and the international community allowing
Farmaajo to remain in office when his constitutional term ended in February
2021.

Somalia is at an inflection point. While it is true that strengthening institutions should always trump investment in an individual if democracy is to succeed, it is also true that individuals matter. A second Farmaajo term will send Somalia over the precipice. A Dani presidency could offer hope. Somalis rather than outsiders must choose their leadership, but the Biden administration can step up to ensure they have the opportunity to do so. As crises accelerate around the globe, a Dani presidency could represent a much-needed good news story.

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