Central Banks Have Left The Barn Door Wide Open

A report from the Sylva Herald in North Carolina. “At the start of the new year home sales across the 13-county Asheville region continued to buck trends, as 906 homes sold, representing an increase of 2.5 percent over sales in January 2021. However, month-over-month sales compared to December’s frenzy of buyers scrambling to close ahead of rising rates, showed a decline of 28.5 percent. These are completed transactions, according to Canopy MLS hat include single family and condo/townhome data only. Buyers will see some relief in pricing which declined in January 2022. Both the median sales price ($278,875) and the average sales price ($275,835) declined 12.9 percent and 34 percent year-over-year respectively.”

The Denver Channel on Colorado. “The Denver city council president wants the state attorney general’s office to look into the Green Valley Ranch HOA over recent foreclosures. Gil Gonzalez Ramos was among the frustrated and angry crowd during Saturday’s meeting. His HOA fines amounted to about $5,000 but ballooned up to about $20,000 because of late fees and lawyers’ fees. ‘I never thought that me, for our family not paying those fines, will lead to the point where we’re at now where we lost our home,’ he said.”

From Fox 10 Phoenix. “For the first time in the three years, and the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, officials with the Federal Reserve announced that they will raise interest rates by a quarter of a percent. Here’s what you should know about its impact on Arizona.  ‘I initially went got my pre-qualification, thought it was good,’ said potential buyer Vince Moody. ‘Then, I have to go back and look for more money to borrow.’”

From Fox 11 Los Angeles. “Walt Tamulinas, ERA Orange CO. Real Estate CEO, foresees interest rates going up to 5 possibly 6% by the end of year… which along with more buyer fatigue, he expects the market to normalize in the next year to year and a half. ‘Everybody asks that big, big question: ‘Is the market going to blow up and the prices going to go down?’ I don’t believe that they will. I believe we have a really strong economy in Southern California and I think that will continue and as a result to that the prices will be stable. What’s going to stop is this craziness of overbidding,’ Tamulinas added.”

“After looking at three dozen homes and making two dozen offers, they finally got their dream home. This is Dave Gilmore’s million-dollar mansion in Mission Viejo. It was listed at $990,000 and sold for $1.75 million. ‘Actually one of the first places we looked at was #17 just down the street right here and we were one of the final two out of like 20 bidders on that one and we didn’t get it and took us another two and a half months of relentless searching,’ said Gilmore.”

The Canadian Press. “The Canadian Real Estate Association said the national average home price climbed by more than 20 per cent since last year to hit a record $816,720 in February. Robert Kavcic, BMO Capital Markets’ senior economist, pointed out that the aggregate composite home price index was up 3.5 per cent on a year-over-year basis last month, the strongest monthly gain on record. ‘That blows through the pace seen a year ago, and also the fastest clip [since] the early-2017 period,’ he said in a note to investors. ‘Prices are going parabolic at a near-50 per cent annualized clip, expectations have rooted, investors are driving most of the incremental demand, and Canadians are buying pre-sale condos halfway across the country.’”

The Globe and Mail. “We’re potentially seeing the gravest central bank policy error since the dawn of inflation targeting. And mortgage holders could pay the price. The Bank of Canada’s response thus far? One measly 25 basis point rate hike. Its rate tightening has come so late that it seems like the punchline of a joke. How do we know it’s late? Because the central bank has never before begun a rate hike cycle: With consumer price index inflation an eye-popping 300 basis points above prime rate; after quantitative easing artificially kept rates lower; after such an obscene run-up in home prices; with the Bank of Canada’s credibility running so low – its string of missed inflation forecasts over the past 18 months have rarely been equalled.”

“If you feel like you’re being ‘punked’ by central bankers, you’re not alone. Without a doubt, central banks have left the barn door wide open. The inflation horse has now run down the road. Those who weren’t around in the 1970s and ‘80s don’t know how hard it is to bring it back in the stable.”

From Bisnow London. “It is a twist of fate. In August 2017, Chinese property giant R&F swooped in to pick up the pieces when its fellow Chinese developer, debt-laden Dalian Wanda, decided not to complete the purchase of a massive development site in the Nine Elms area of south east London. Now R&F is selling a huge development just around the corner at a £69M loss.”

From Bloomberg. “What used to be a gold mine for Chinese property developers has become a burden as the industry’s credit crunch intensifies. Urban redevelopment projects, which turn run-down areas into new properties in big cities, were sought after by developers like Logan and Times China Holdings Ltd. in recent years for their prime locations and hefty margins.”

“Now such works are being scrutinized by investors and credit rating companies for their tendency to house hidden debts through the use of joint ventures and shadow financing. They are also taking longer to complete — sometimes more than a decade — sucking up cash and making it difficult for distressed developers to generate sales in time to soothe angry creditors.”

News.com.au on Australia. “The owners of defunct construction giant Condev have fought back tears as they fronted media on Wednesday, just moments after placing the company into liquidation. Co-founders Steve and Tracy Marais were unable to secure a reported $25 million bailout from developers to deal with rising building costs and Covid delays. ‘The ink isn’t dry yet but we are formally in liquidation,’ said Ms Marais, holding back tears. ‘We advised our staff there was no need to come to work today but there’s so many here. It’s like being at a funeral.’”

From Radio New Zealand. “REINZ chief executive Jen Baird said market sentiment is changing. The number of properties sold rose 49 percent on January to 5597, but the number of houses available to sell rose by nearly half to 23,270. The time taken to sell a house also increased over the year from 31 to 42 days. ‘While prices are holding despite the change in market dynamics, there is now a fear of over paying (FOOP) amongst buyers, some of whom will be under additional pressure from legislative and fiscal changes impacting their ability to borrow,’ Baird said.”

“Generally regions reported a reduction in buyer enquiries, open home visits, and fewer auction sales, as well as fewer houses being sold, and taking longer to sell. ‘As a shift in sentiment sets in and buyers are less willing, or unable, to pay the prices we saw towards the end of 2021, pressure will come on vendors to adjust their expectations to meet the market,’ Baird said.”