Primary season
continues, and this Saturday Alaska will hold a special congressional election
to fill the seat of the late Don Young (R). He spent 49 years in the House and
rarely faced a serious challenger.

But this year’s election is different from previous primaries. The state is holding this primary and its regular congressional primaries under a Final Four system.

Here’s how it
works. Each voter in the primary may select one candidate for representative.
What’s novel is that all candidates regardless of party will be on the same
ballot. The state will not, as in the past, force Democrat and Republican
voters to choose only from members of their own parties.

The top four vote-getters in Saturday’s primary then move on to a general election that will be held on August 16. Voters will get to rank these four candidates from most desirable (1) to least desirable (4). If a candidate wins 50.1 percent or more of the number one rankings, he wins. If not, then the candidate with the least number one votes is eliminated, and their supporters’ picks for rank two are allocated to the remaining candidates. If that produces a candidate with 50.1 percent or more, that candidate is the victor. If not, the process continues with the third-place candidate being eliminated and his rank three and four votes distributed.

Speaking of four,
here are four things I will be watching in Alaska’s special primary election.

Will turn-out increase in this primary?

Young faced only two challengers in his 2020 primary. But his death and the open primary have opened the flood gates, with 48 individuals vying to win. Some are cranks, like the monk named Santa Claus who is running as a socialist and is a member of the city council for the community of North Pole. (Really.) But plenty of real contenders have also thrown in their hats, far more than in memory.

Already, it appears that voter turnout for this primary may be higher than usual. Voting began on May 27 and reportedly more than 100,000 ballots have been returned thus far. About 130,000 Alaskans voted in the primary in 2020. The state has more than 545,000 registered voters.

Will Don Young’s seat be won by a culture warrior or a
wheeler-dealer?

Don Young was a Republican but nobody would mistake him for a right-wing ideologue. He loved his guns and was notoriously politically incorrect, but he spent his career in Congress delivering policies and resources to benefit Alaskans. In the House, wheeler-dealer GOP legislators have become fewer in number over the past 30 years, replaced by culture warriors, Tea Partiers, and more recently MAGA politicians.

Will Young’s at-large Alaska seat succumb to this trend? It is difficult to say, as polling a 48-person race is exceedingly difficult. The odds seem long that the top four candidates will all be MAGA candidates. There are establishment candidates in the mix, such as Nick Begich III, whose relatives have served in the US House and Senate and Alaska’s legislature. Tara Sweeney, a former chair for Mr. Young’s campaign and an assistant secretary for Indian Affairs, also is well known to voters and backed by big donors.

The odds of a
culture warrior ultimately taking the seat is made longer still by the
structure of the general election. Ranked-choice voting aims to elevate
candidates who are at least acceptable to a majority of voters. Hence, a
candidate who has ardent supporters but is viewed as toxic by many others is
unlikely to win.

Will this primary election help Sarah Palin revive her
dormant political career?

Sarah Palin has
not held office since 2009, when she resigned from Alaska’s governorship. She
remained salient in conservative circles for a few more years, but her star
dimmed when her picks in the state gubernatorial race were defeated in 2014.
Thereafter she would appear occasionally in the news, such as when she rapped
on the Masked Singer in 2020 and unsuccessfully sued the New York Times for defamation. It has been a sharp fall after a
fast rise from mayor of small-town Wasilla (1996) to vice presidential
candidate in 2008.

Palin certainly has much higher name recognition than many of the 48 candidates running for the seat. Trump also has endorsed her. An April poll found 37 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of her. In a crowded field, that might be enough to get her into the final four, which would generate buzz and presumably campaign donations.

Will Alaska’s election administration go smoothly?

Alaska’s Division of Elections gives the appearance of being very confident in its administration of this election. The last day for voter registration was May 12, and there have been no reports of any issues to date. One wild card is the number of ballots that will arrive via mail. About 38 percent of voters mailed in their ballots during the 2020 primary. Mailed-in ballots must be counted so long as they are postmarked the date of the election or earlier. If turnout is high and voters are dilatory, then election officials may be delayed in determining the final four winners.

The post 4 Things to Look For in the Upcoming Alaska Special Election for Congress appeared first on American Enterprise Institute – AEI.